August 2025 - INDL position

 Date of Entry: August 2025

Ticker / Instrument: INDL – Direxion Daily India Bull 2x Shares (leveraged ETF)

Trade Type: Long position (shares)

Reason for Entry:
I entered this position after observing oversold technical conditions on the weekly chart. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) had descended toward the –100 threshold, which historically suggests the asset is nearing an oversold zone. Momentum to the downside appeared to have stalled, with the CCI moving sideways rather than continuing its decline, signaling a potential shift toward stabilization or reversal.

Macro / News Backdrop:
This trade is being taken against a challenging macro environment for Indian equities:

• Tariff Escalation: On August 6, 2025, President Donald Trump announced an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, raising the total rate to 50%. 

Risk Management:
Due to the negative trade news and potential for further geopolitical escalation, I am implementing a tight stop loss at –10%. The position is small and speculative, targeting a potential technical rebound rather than a long-term macro trend.

Goal / Exit Plan:

• Primary Exit: Profit target based on a bounce from oversold levels toward the mid-range of recent trading.

• Stop Loss: Immediate exit if price declines 10% from entry, to limit downside exposure in the event tariffs continue to pressure Indian equities.

Notes:
Will monitor:

• Technical behavior around the –100 CCI level.

• Any signs of reversal on the weekly chart (CCI crossing upward).

• 
  Developments in U.S.–India trade negotiations or changes in tariff policy.

• Broader emerging market sentiment, as INDL could be influenced by shifts in global risk appetite.

August Trading Notes (TQQQ – LEAP Puts)

Ticker / Instrument: TQQQ – LEAP Puts

Trade Type: Long-term bearish position (LEAP Puts)

Rationale:
I initiated this trade because TQQQ appeared overbought and technically due for a pullback. On the weekly chart, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) had been trending down and crossed below the +100 threshold, signaling a possible trend reversal from bullish to neutral/bearish. See Figure Below:

From a macro/valuation perspective, multiple long-term valuation measures suggested the broader market is expensive:

• Buffett Indicator – at elevated levels, historically associated with overvaluation.

• CAPE Ratio – well above historical norms.

• Price-to-Sales Ratio – stretched compared to long-term averages.

• S&P 500 Mean Reversion Models – indicating limited upside from current price levels.

That said, two factors tempered the bearish case:

• Earnings Yield Gap – still suggests the market is fairly valued relative to bonds.

• Market Sentiment – currently neutral, not overly euphoric or fearful.

Position Size & Risk Management:
Position sized small to moderate (10 % of my account), acknowledging the risk that valuation extremes can persist. This trade is intended as a longer-term hedge against potential market weakness, rather than a short-term speculative investment.

Goal / Exit Plan:
Will sell into strength starting at a 50% percent return.  Some of the positions will be stopped out if their price drops 20% or the CCI reclaims +120 on the weekly chart. Additionally, all PUTs will be sold if the price drops 30%.  I will reconsider more PUTs, even if stoppped out, if the CCI resupports a bearish thesis.

Notes:
Will closely monitor macroeconomic data releases and shifts in sentiment. Will also watch for confirmation in correlated ETFs (e.g., QQQ, QLD) and broader indices (e.g., NASDAQ-100, S&P 500).

Summary -- FEAR: Real Confidence. Self Esteem. Becoming Rejection-Proof & Anxiety Free.

Summary -- FEAR: Real Confidence. Self Esteem. Becoming Rejection-Proof & Anxiety Free.

• Listen to audio 
• View video
• Take action

How to challenge your anxiety

• New “Frame”

How & Why to reprogram your brain 

• Rule - Discomfort (talking in front of other; ) earns you 1% towards confidence 
• “The truth about long-term development is that it comes from small efforts applied regularly to create powerful habits that then produce results in your life.”
• “There is a set of principles that consistently produce Results.”
• “People who put in the time and effort on a consistent basis create habits and the focus to produce results. This ability is only earned, but once you get it, you keep that with you for life.”
• The “I Can” people think they can do something but when opportunities arise for them to take action they don’t. Whereas the “I Am” people are the type of people who do take action when the moment arises and who do produce results.
• Be the type of person who says “I am doing this” and not “I can do this”.

Random notes on real estate investing

Considerations when looking at any property

• Purchase price - e.g., 150K

• Rehab  - e.g., 50k (when and if to do it)

• Sale  - e.g., 250K 

• Rental potential - e.g., 1k

• Time - 6 months

• Profit (250K - (150k + 50k) = 50k) ==> in 6 months

• Risks (internal and external) (market shifts, unexpected events, borrowing of cash)

• rent income over X years

• increase in property value over X years 

Need to look at the amounts of cash flow IN and OUT

Timing of cash 

E.g., Hypo

• - 150 k on rental 

• - rehab is 25k

• - rent is 1k (income it can rent)

• - Sale price 

Cash Flow Signature - all investments opportunities have this
Types

• Rental income property

• fix and flip

• apartments

• commercial real estate

Partnerships



Need to understand Risk-Reward for Investment Opportunities 

• Need to do investment analysis 

• (1st filter) Back of Envelop Analysis (pen and paper) (75%)

• (2nd filter) Detailed analysis and validation of assumptions (20%)

• (3rd filter) Letter of Intent & Due Diligence (5%) (e.g., 1 in 20)

Investment analysis process
1. Understand Analysis scope (what info do you need?)
2. Gather data (market sale prices, market rent, e.g, comps; use Zillow )
3. Build a Model (e.g., Excel)
4. Test & Interpret (most important), most difficult to master 
5. Make a decision 
.


Data Gathering tools

USA

• trulia.com (pulls from MLS so may be more accurate)
• redfin.com
• craigslist.com
• loopnet.com (more for commercial)
• Rentometer.com (get quick rent estimate for your property and comps but requires Pro version for additional data)

Canada

• realtor.ca
• rew.ca
• remax.ca
• craigslist.ca

Latin America

• casa.com

Dubai/UAE

• dubizzle.com
• propertyfinder.ae

India

• indiaproperty.com
• realtor.com/internationa/in
• 99acres.com
• https://housing.com/in/

Philippines

• www.property24.com.ph/philippines/houses‎
• homes.trovit.ph/For-Sale/Houses‎
• www.lamudi.com.ph/house/buy/
• https://www.realtor.com/international/ph/
• https://www.olx.ph/real-estate

China (helps if you know Chinese)

• www.fang.com
• www.dichan.com
• www.juwai.com (if you're targeting Chinese buyers with international real estate)

Other International

• realtor.com
• europeanproperty.com (reach out to agents with listings in your target market)
• http://suumo.jp/ (for Japan)

My decision to sell PICK.  Was it unwise?  Only time will tell.

The figure above shows around when I bought shares and the last point shows my exit point for several of the shares bought. 

PICK is the stock symbol for iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF.  Its current value as of yesterday’s close was $32.57, and its one-year total return is 27%.   However, its historical returns are negative – see below.

I choose to purchase PICK for the fund because its stock price was at a low and produced high dividends.  To make my decision to sell PICK, I used my portfolio control algorithm, implemented in a Google Sheet, to make the decision for me.  My assumptions are a 50% probability that the stock may go up/down, and that I have a max to initially invest of $1600 in PICK – and I want to make a decision once a month.  The algorithm is investment conservative – e.g., avoid losses. See figure below which compares the average return of the conservative method verse a lump sum investment in PICK.   

The algorithm running on historical data made the following buy/sell decisions.  

Date	Decision	Shares / Total	Portfolio Value / Cash
09/01/2015	Buy	42  / 42	$1600 / $809
01/01/2016	Buy	8  / 50	$1439 / $703
04/01/2016	Sell	6  / 44	$1820 / 708
11/1/2016	Sell	7 / 37	$2047 / 872
01/01/2017	Sell	4 / 33	$2168 / 1077

Based on this analysis, I decided to sell several shares to reach 33 shares in my fund’s holding.  I still have fractions of shares in this account.  Therefore, I will continue with dividend reinvest with PICK until I approximate an even share amount. 

Two years have passed since I started my drive free car (DFC) fund.

On July 20, 2015, I began my experiment to invest the amount of a typical car payment into an investment account with the purpose of using the fund to pay for a reliable vehicle in the future based solely on its growth.  I began the fund with a deposit of $613.30, and I planned to invest ~$480 dollars per month over its lifetime.

However, life is unpredictable, and I had to stop contributing to the account as of 04/24/2017.  I, however, plan to re-contribute to the DFC fund starting in November.

As of July 18, 2016 - July 30, 2017, I have made the following deposits:

Date	Deposit
04/24/2017	$460.00
03/22/2017	$460.00
01/23/2017	$460.00
12/22/2016	$460.00
11/22/2016	$460.00
10/24/2016	$460.00
09/22/2016	$460.00
08/22/2016	$460.00
08/08/2016	$460.00
07/22/2016	$460.00

And in January, I withdrew $100.00 from the fund, making the total contributions at $4500 for this year - and $5,736 (approx) for last year.  The current value of the fund is $11,493.00.  Therefore, theoretically, I could withdraw $1257.00 (the Interest) without hurting the principal that I have invested.  The return on the investment over the last two years has been 12.28%.

I have included, below, some vehicle options that priced around $1257 - e.g., my return on my investment (free money for a car) over the last two years. 

My DFC Fund is now $11,007.90.  I have stopped contributions temporarily going forward.  In April, I made a contribution of $460.00 to the fund. Below, I have included some car options that are around $11,000.  Also, I have included a graph showing the performance of the SP500 as of May 28th.

My DFC Fund is now $10,419.79.  In March, I made a contribution of $460.00 to the fund. Below, I have included some car options that are around $10,750.  Also, I have included a graph showing the performance of the SP500 as of March 25th.

My DFC Fund is now $10,286.24.  In February, I made a contribution of $460.00 to the fund. Below, I have included some car options that are around $10,500.  Also, I have included a graph showing the performance of the SP500 as of February 23rd.

232 days later . . .

I have lost 34 lbs, and I have donated a good portion of my now baggie clothes.  Bye-bye jeans with 36" (+) waist.  Hello, new jeans with a 32" waist.

My DFC Fund is now $9,730.66.  In January, I made a contribution of $460.00 to the fund.  However, I withdrew $100 from the fund in order to create a new fund for clothing.  Below, I have included some car options that are around $10,000.  In addition, I have included a graph showing the performance of the SP500 as of January 27th.

Acronyms
DFC – Drive Free Cars

Rethinking diet

In 1996 as a teenager I was becoming increasingly sick.  I had blood in my stool nearly daily and uncontrollable fevers and chills.  And I had lost my Appetite and would try to sleep all day.  A few days after my 16th birthday, my parents took to a doctor because of a high fever and these symptoms.  During, the checkup I passed out.  I awoke in a hospital bed with medical professionals attempting to lower my fever.  I ended up staying in the hospital for over a month.  I was officially diagnosed with Crohn's Disease and put on a liquid diet of chicken and beef broth for about a month.  The doctor’s prescribed a ton of medicine for me.  However, the systems for Crohn’s didn’t disappear.  I still had bleeding and outbursts of fevers.

I battled Crohn’s through my undergrad with medicine after medicine.  I ate mostly bread and meats - but avoided veggies based on the recommendation of a doctor.  I felt like crap most of the time.  My immune system was weak because of the drugs.  

In 2004 I came across a book on the specific carbohydrate diet that provided a diet that would alleviate the symptoms of my Crohn's disease.  It removed complex sugars, e.g.,  refined sugars, bread, and pasta, from my diet which would kill off the bad bacteria that was assumed to be the underlying cause of my disease.  The diet worked well. I was able to come off of my medicines.  And my inflammation in the intestines, a symptom of Crohn's disease,  decreased.   I felt great and was easy for me to follow.   However, I returned to eating ‘regular’ food around 2009.  And I barely had any Crohn's symptoms or major reactions.  Little to no fevers or blood in the stool.  Life is good. Right?

Well, before changing my diet from SCD to more ‘normal’ diet,  I weighed around 165 lbs. Within the first year of returning to the ‘normal’ high sugar diet, I gained about 10-15 lbs of weight, likely all fat.  Then in 2010, I crossed the 200 lbs mark - wow!  My waist had gained 5 inches over two years!  Over 2010 to 2012, my weight hovered around 190 - 210 lbs.  Then when I started law school in 2012 I ate bread and sugary snacks all the time - I had too I thought, there were no other options.  Really, I just craved those foods.  By 2016, I reached 225 lbs.

Then over summer, I was researching ways to lower blood pressure, and I came across intermittent fasting.  I tried it right away, and within the first 40 days, I was down 20 lbs!   I have continued to intermittent fast, over 180 days now, and my weight fluctuates around 190 lbs.  But, I am still eating the high sugar foods - bread and pasta.   Can I do more?  

Yes, I can.  This year, I plan to try out a Ketogenic diet – high fat and low carb eating. The main reasons for my decision, are the number benefits from this diet.  Such as more energy, reduction of inflammation, clearer thinking, and better mood stabilization (e.g., serotonin and dopamine levels are optimized)

Source: http://www.ketogenic-diet-resource.com/ketogenic-diet-benefits.html

My cognitive strategy - a habit of ‘positive’ visualization and thinking patterns.

One has a better probability of achieving success through mental preparation - a positive belief or image of achieving success.  In 1992, several researchers interviewed various members of the U.S. Olympic team to determine their pre-competition preparation.  The research indicated that those who had the best outcomes followed a strict mental preparation plan of total focus on seeing their own success, building confidence, and visualizing routes to achieve high performance. Ultimately had higher probabilities in winning.  However, those who had the worst outcomes were not confident in their preparation plans and often had thoughts on failure.   The conclusion was that pre-competitive states (positive or negative thoughts) play a critical role in competitive performance.  Thus, like the Little Blue Engine, who said “I think I can,  I think I can” and climbed that big mountain, we can become high achievers by our own positive visualization and thoughts.   The methodology for this cognitive strategy is easy as 1, 2, and 3.  

1. Recognition of the challenging situation - for example, doing 100 pull-ups; or becoming a millionaire
2. Use of affirmations and visualization to see your own ability to execute a target behavior for achieving those results - tell yourself you can do the pull-ups and then see yourself doing 100 pull-ups; or tell yourself you can be a millionaire and then see yourself investing and watching  your net worth grow)
3. the resulting performance - now, actually doing the pull-ups or investing.

Takeaways:

1. Use self-dialog, tell-yourself that you can achieve. Often referred to as affirmations in ‘pop’ psychology.
2. Use mental imagery - the imagined results of behavior and success - before you actually perform. Often referred to as visualization in ‘pop’ psychology. 
3. Avoid or replace your distorted beliefs and assumptions that may be the basis of your dysfunctional thought processes.

In the future, I plan to investigate and discuss the brain’s chemical responses to affirmations and visualization.  

Over the weekend, motivated after watching the minimalists, I went through my closet and donated nearly one hundred clothing items -- yet, I still have excess clothing. 

 My underlying motivation dealt with the value of clothing and space.  First, clothing has a  relatively low value -- e.g., the cost to replace an item is trivial -- Second, clutter-free space has high value added -- it feels great not to have clothes cluttering my room and closet.  

 Further, I decided to create a fund that would allow me to replace clothing as needed.  The goal is to have the interest generated by the principal investment pay for all my clothes. And, this system should be faster to implement than my drive free cars fund.  I moved $100 from my drive free cars fund (DFC) and created a new fund, the Free Clothes Fund (FCF). 


At the outset, I'm not sure exactly how much money I will need to buy clothes per year because depends on where I shop.  But I would like to have enough money in the fund to know that I could purchase clothing as needed or desired. Watch for more on the FCF fund. Below are some options I found on eBay showing how cheap a replacement suit is. 

The DFC Fund is now $8954.71.  I made a  contribution of $460.00 to my DFC Fund for December. Below, I have included some for-sale car options that are around $9000.  In addition, I have included a graph showing the performance of the SP500 as of December 29th.

The DFC Fund is now $8498.92.  I made a  contribution of $460.00 to my DFC Fund for November.  Below, I have included some for-sale car options that are around $8500.  In addition, I have included a graph showing the performance of the SP500 as of November 19th.

The DFC Fund is now $7,824.50.  I made a  contribution of $460.00 to my DFC Fund for October.  Below, I have included some for-sale car options that are around $7800-$8300.  In addition, I have included a graph showing the performance of the SP500 as of November 6th.

The DFC Fund is now $7,636.50.  I made a surprise contribution of $460.00 to my DFC Fund for September – I had thought I turned off automatic investments.  Below, I have included some for-sale car options that are around $7500-$8000.  In addition, I have included a graph showing the performance of the SP500 as of September 26th.

Free Workout – no membership costs, and no equipment costs

The ROI is infinite – no cost, the weight is free, no commuting, and always available.  “WHAT IS IT?” you ask.  It is bodyweight lifts.  We all know of at least a few of them, as our gym instructor in high school accessed our grades based on them.  For example, the number of pushups, pullups, dips, and sit-ups were used to gauge our fitness and grade.  I vaguely recall struggling with pushups and pullups and being depressed about my performance.  At the time, I thought that upper body strength was some innate ability – either you are born with it, or not.  Now I know it something that can be achieved through deliberate training. 

            To summarize, the cool thing about a bodyweight workout is that the weight is always with you, literally.  So there is no excuse not to work out.  These exercises will end the naysayers that make excuses like, e.g. “I don’t have a gym nearby”, “I can’t afford a membership or weights”, “I don’t have time”, or “I am always traveling.”  So let us outline some basis for us to begin the best ROI workout.

            First, should I aim for a lot of reps? Probably not. It is better to work on strength rather than endurance. We can use physics to adjust the weight to make the exercise more demanding on the muscle – e.g. pushup (normal), evaluated pushup, one-handed pushup, etc.  Second, do I need many exercises?  Probably not, just focus on the core movements for building strength. Third, should I workout every day?  Probably not.  It typically takes a day or more for your body to recover from a strength training routine – typically, most programs have a Monday, Wednesday, and Friday workout, with the others days for rest and recovery.  Okay, how many exercises are necessary? Maybe 3 -6 per workout, with 3 sets per exercise.  So what are the exercises?

1. Push-ups (builds up chest, triceps, and front delts); handstand pushups (shoulders) 

2. Chin-ups & pull-ups (upper back and biceps) 

3. Pistol Squats (lower body)

4. Crunches, Hanging Leg Raises, Front Lever Pulls (Abs)

5.  L-Sits, and Back Bridges (Back)